Changelog

Model updates, new sports, and API changes.

v3.0 March 23, 2026

Model v3 — football features + pregame WP prior

  • Added football-specific features: down, distance, yard_line, possession_home (CFB/NFL)
  • Added pregame_wp as a fixed prior from ESPN pre-game win probability
  • CFB: 87.0% WR, +27.2c/trade (up from +9.4c in v2)
  • NFL: 90.0% WR, +29.7c/trade (up from +24.2c in v2)
  • NCAAMB: 73.8% WR, +12.0c/trade
  • Added --select-by-trading flag to train_wp_model.py
New March 2026

CS2, LoL, Tennis models

  • CS2: Negative binomial model with HLTV Elo (258 teams)
  • LoL: Elo + binomial series model via lolesports API (255 teams)
  • Tennis: Hierarchical point-level model with surface adjustment
  • All in shadow testing — live results pending
New March 2026

ZenHodl API + Dashboard launch

  • REST API: /v1/games, /v1/edges, /v1/sports, /v1/predictions
  • WebSocket real-time stream
  • Backtest-as-a-service (25M+ rows)
  • Auto-refreshing edge scanner dashboard
  • Stripe billing with 7-day free trial
  • Discord edge alerts
v2.0 February 2026

Spread/Total WP + Soccer WP models

  • Spread WP: regression + CDF model, time-bucketed residual std
  • SPREAD: 721 trades, 56.7% WR, +6.3c/trade
  • Soccer WP: Poisson model, 64 trades, 64.1% WR, +26.0c/trade
  • Added ESPN adaptive polling (5s fast / 15s slow)
v1.0 December 2025

Initial moneyline WP model

  • LR+Spline models for NBA, NCAAMB, NHL, MLB
  • XGBoost+Isotonic for NCAAMB
  • Elo ratings for 258+ teams per sport
  • 13-feature model: score_diff, seconds_remaining, period, time_fraction, elo_diff